A week or so after the debacle around Von Der Leyen’s invocation of Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol and the ongoing fiasco of the EU vaccination programme it might be useful to take stock.
Firstly we have to understand that the UK Government gambled hard on vaccination being the only route out of the pandemic – all other measures being control and time shifting. They then backed the gamble to the tune of at least £374 million to fund the research and scale up production facilities so that the Pharma companies could start to produce at scale as soon as possible. There were further incentives provided such as waiver of liability. The whole buttressed by commercial contracts and a UK supply chain. Furthermore, no doubt scarred by the PPE dog fight, they ordered huge quantities from multiple suppliers. The EU Commission decided that vaccination could be a poster child for the benefits of Europe and the EU but opted for a more cautious approach seeking to support EU businesses and also gain benefit from bulk purchasing power. Some were more successful than others and got to market quicker and the UK gamble paid off and continues to do so. The EU response of increasingly strident demands that companies fulfil the EU contracts in preference to other ones (specifically the UK) made no legal or commercial sense. So to the invocation of Article 16. I have always thought that it was hubristic madness to weaponise the Irish border and jeopardise the Good Friday Agreement for a trading advantage. Possibly you have to be old enough and sufficiently geographically proximate to remember ‘The Troubles’ however. But Von Der Leyen has effectively removed the possibility of the EU using that again. Her arrogant failure to, at a minimum, consult or inform the Republic of Ireland prior to taking action has done that never mind managing to enrage every interested party. The Brexit Punishment Trade War will doubtless continue on other fronts but she’s managed to successfully hoist herself on her own petard here and weakened the EU position significantly and globally. The blowback from the vaccination failures looks set to become the Anti EU argument instead of the positive one as intended.
The other big losers from the whole episode are Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. Sturgeon is facing serious challenges from the ongoing Salmond tribunal and the less than successful vaccination performance has increased the pressure on her. She has dangled the prospect of ‘indyref2’ whether or not the UK Government agrees as, I believe, a distraction and a bribe to her supporters (‘Give me a pass on this and you’ll get the referendum’). That said, I think that indyref2 is the last thing she wants. If it happens and they lose then what’s the point of the SNP? If they win the financial consequences will be severe. But, Scotland will rejoin the EU as soon as it becomes independent they cry as if it’s a done deal. The problem is that it is far from that. Scotland isn’t even close to meeting the financial criteria and the EU does not want another Greece on its hands. Also, the EU has taken a reputational hammering recently with it’s vaccination performance so what with fishing and stirring up Ireland (very strong links between Scotland and Ireland of course) I suspect the EU is not quite as popular as it was. There is also no guarantee that Spain will accede to Scotland rejoining, I would suspect not as they don’t want to encourage the Catalans. That said, the EU may well fast track Scotland back in to stick two fingers up at the UK but rejoining means the Euro which doesn’t work very well for poorer countries. The above and the dead cat strategy that Sturgeon is employing by sacking 2 of her Westminster MPs from the front bench leads me to think that she, and the SNP, have lost the Mandate of Heaven’. This concept comes from historic China and occurred when an Emperor lost control (or the illusion of control) and tends to happen to Western politicians when it all starts coming unglued. Five years ago she would probably have skated through this but now? I think her days are numbered.